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Item: 130576627 |
Estimated Delivery: 5-7 Days
A black swan is a highly improbable event with 3 principal characteristics. It is unpredictable. It carries a massive impact. And, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan. So was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities; too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate and categorize; and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.Elegant, startling and universal in its applications, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a landmark book, itself a black swan.
We want you to be completely satisfied with your purchase. If you find that you need to return an item, please review the complete details of our Return Policy below to determine if any special return conditions apply.
Most items may be returned within 30 days after the ship date for a refund. If you would like to replace the item you have returned, please place a new order. While most items are returnable, they are subject to the following guidelines:
Proper Conditions for Return and Credit
Returned merchandise must be in new condition with its original packing and accessories intact. If you are returning a product listed below, please check to make sure your return meets the following conditions:
Please note: We regret that BJ's cannot cover the cost of shipping for product returns.
Also please note: Products having service-center-only restrictions under a manufacturer’s warranty which are not operating properly must be repaired according to the procedures/repair centers specified in the User Manual, and may not be returned to BJ’s.
If you have ordered one of these non-returnable items, please inspect the item carefully PRIOR TO SIGNING FOR IT. If the item is incorrect or damaged, refuse the delivery and you will receive a full refund. Once the item has been accepted it will be deemed to be correct and in good working condition. Any issues that arise after the item is signed for must be resolved through the manufacturer’s warranty.
Unless otherwise designated as “Non-Returnable Items,” all merchandise purchased on BJs.com between November 1 and December 24 can be returned no later than the following January 24. Returned merchandise must be in new condition with its original packing and accessories intact or it may be subject to a restocking fee. Valid Return Authorization Number required.
Merchandise purchased before or after the qualifying period described in the preceding paragraph or returned after January 24 will be subject to the regular BJs.com Return Policy as described in “Proper Conditions for Return and Credit.”
If you wish to return an item, you can follow these simple steps:
PLEASE NOTE: you will not be allowed to initiate a return beyond 30 days from your date of shipping.
Items eligible for return must be returned within 30 days from date of shipping. For more information, please see the “Proper Conditions for Return and Credit” section of BJ's Return Policy.
We regret that we are unable to accept perishables, earrings, opened CDs, DVDs, computer software and video games, memory foam pillows, mattresses and toppers, items delivered via “White Glove” delivery methods, and personalized items for return at this time. For more information, please see the “Proper Conditions for Return and Credit” section of BJ's Return Policy.
If a signature is required, please inspect your package carefully before signing for it. If after accepting the package you determine that there are damaged or defective parts, please contact BJ's Member Care to provide details about the damaged order.
If you receive an incorrect product, please review your order information to be certain that there were no errors in the order process. If you then determine that you received an item you did not order, please initiate a return (see “Returning An Item” above for instructions) online and then re-order the correct product. If you have questions or need assistance in this process, please contact BJ's Member Care.
In the event that your merchandise arrived with parts missing, please contact the supplier directly (supplier contact information will be provided on your packing slip) for replacements. If you are unable to reach the supplier, please contact BJ's Member Care for assistance.
We regret that we cannot offer item-for-item exchanges or Club credits at this time. If you have questions or need assistance in this process, please contact BJ's Member Care.
Returning Online Items in-Club
We regret that we are unable to accept items purchased online for return in your local Club at this time. We apologize for any inconvenience. If you wish to return an item purchased online, please initiate a return (see “Returning An Item” above for instructions). If you have questions or need assistance in this process, please contact BJ's Member Care.
Return Shipping Costs
If you refuse your delivery without inspection, miss your delivery appointment(s) or return a non-defective or undamaged product, you will incur original shipping charges along with actual return shipping fees.
In the event that your returned merchandise was mis-shipped, damaged or defective, BJ's Member Care team will be happy to reimburse you for return shipping costs or arrange to have your return picked up. Please contact BJ's Member Care and we will be able to assist you.